NEW CROP SESAME SEEDS ARRIVALS ARE COMING INTO THE MARKET YARDS IN A TRICKLE, WHICH IS RAISING BLOOD PRESSURE LEVELS ON THE SESAME STREET, AS SLUMDOG STOCKIEST ARE BUILDING UP A HYPE OF A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED NEW CROP SIZE. THE TRADERS & STOCKIEST ARE BUILDING UP CLOUDY IMAGE OF NEW CROP SESAME SEEDS NOT LARGER THAN 225,000 METRIC TONS, WHEREAS A SURVEY CARRIED OUT BY SESAME ASSOCIATIONS ESTIMATES CROP SIZE AT A SHADE OVER 300,000 TONS.LAST YEAR CROP SIZE WAS A SHADE OVER 350,000 TONS. INDIA EXPORTED A RECORD 330,000 METRIC TONS SESAME SEEDS BETWEEN APRIL 2010 TO MARCH 2011 BASIS, SO IF INDIA DOES PERFORM AGAIN WITH SUCH LARGE EXPORT FIGURES, EXPECT PRICES TO MOVE UP SHARPLY AS DEMAND WILL OUTSTRIPS THE SUPPLIES IN COMING QUARTERS
CHINA'S NEW CROP SESAME SEEDS CROP SIZE IS EXPECTED TO BE 450,000 METRIC TONS, AND IT'S INTERNAL CONSUMPTION IS 800,000 TONS, SO A SHORTFALL OF SHADE OVER 40% BASIS, SO ON AN AVERAGE CHINA WILL BE IMPORTING 30,000 TONS EVERY MONTH, WHICH IS CAUSE OF ALARM BELLS ON THE SESAME STREET. CHINESE TRADERS HAVE MANAGED WAYS TO IMPORT INDIAN SESAME SEEDS WITHOUT PAYING ANY DUTY, WHERE THIS IS A WILL, THERE IS A WAY. THE SESAME SEEDS CONFERENCE IN CHINA LAST MONTH, ADVISED, THAT FARMERS IN CHINA HAVE SWITCHED TO CASH RICH RETURN CROP LIKE MAIZE, COTTON & PEANUT AND THUS PRODUCTION OF SESAME SEEDS HAS BEEN GOING DOWN EVERY YEAR, THUS WE HAVE THIS IMPACT, THAT JUST FIVE YEARS BACK, CHINA WAS THE BIGGEST EXPORTER OF SESAME SEEDS, IS NOW THE BIGGEST IMPORTER, WHICH AFFECTS SESAME SEEDS PRICES GLOBALLY AND IS A GAME CHANGER ON THE SESAME STREET,WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO BUY
ANOTHER GAME CHANGER IS THE VOLATILE DOLLAR VALUE. SESAME SEEDS PRICES FROM MYANMAR ARE EXPENSIVE DUE TO IT'S CURRENCY VALUATION AGAINST THE DOLLARS.INDIAN SESAME SEEDS PRICES HAVE BECOME CHEAPER BY ALMOST 10% DUE TO STRONGER DOLLAR VALUE AGAINST THE INDIAN RUPEE. A WEAKER EURO MAKES PRICES OF SESAME SEEDS FROM BURKIANA CHEAPER. TURKISH CURRENCY HAS GONE FROM 1.5TL TO 1.9TL AGAINST THE DOLLAR, SO DEMAND FROM TURKEY IS DOWN FOR BUYING SESAME SEEDS
NIGERIA IS HAVING A NORMAL SIZE CROP, BURKIANA IS HAVING A SMALLER CROP, ETHIOPIA IS HAVING A SHADE SMALLER SIZE NEW CROP, AND SUDAN TOO REPORTING SMALLER CROP DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.THE INDIAN NEW CROP IS SMALLER BY 10% TO 20% , SO THIS SEASON, THERE IS NOT A SINGLE COUNTRY WHICH IS REPORTING A BUMPER CROP, SO NO EXCESS SUPPLIES COMING IN FOR THE WORLD DEMAND, WHICH IN TURN MEANS A BULLISH SENTIMENT BUILDING ON THE SESAME STREET FOR THE NEXT THREE QUARTERS, SO PLEASE BE WATCHFUL ON THE SESAME STREET
JAPAN IS WELL COVERED TILL DECEMBER, CHINA IS ALWAYS A BUYER, 24x7, 365 DAYS, SO THE CHINA FACTOR SPOOKS THE SESAME STREET,ALWAYS, HAVE TO LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT, LIKE WE LIVE WITH OUR WIFE'S, UNEXPECTED DEMAND,LEARN TO DEAL & LIVE WITH IT. USA AND EUROPE BUYERS FACE CASH SQUEEZE, AS BUYERS HAVE TO PAY RECORD HIGH PRICES FOR OTHER COMMODITIES LIKE BLACK PEPPER , GINGER , AND ALSO THE BANKS THERE REFUSE TO LOAN MORE FUNDS DUE TO THE FISCAL SITUATION IN USA AND EUROPE, SO DIRECT RESULT IS REDUCTION IN ORDERS OF LOW MARGIN ITEMS LIKE SESAME SEEDS, SO THEY PREFER TO BUY ON BACK TO BACK TRADE BASIS. KOREA WILL CONTINUE TO BUY IT'S ANNUAL DEMAND OF 35,000 TO 40,000 TONS WHICH SOMEHOW ONLY INDIAN TRADERS BAG THE TENDER WITH IT'S AGGRESSIVE PRICES
DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR SLIDES IN PRICES FROM PRESENT LEVELS, IF PRICES I REPEAT ''IF'' PRICES DROP BY USD 50 TO USD 75 PMT FROM PRESENT LEVELS,CONSIDER IT A CHRISTMAS GIFT FROM SANTA TO THE SESAME STREET, YES INDEED DIME A DOZEN MANY SHIPPERS FROM INDIA WILL BE READY TO PLAY SANTA AND OFFER LOW PRICES
THE INDIAN RUPEE WHICH TWO WEEKS BACK WAS US$ 1 = IRS 50.00 , IS TODAY @ US$ 1 = IRS 48.80, SO THE DOLLAR IS WEAKER BY 2.40% , WHICH MAKES PRICES OF SESAME SEEDS HIGHER IN DOLLAR TERMS
QUOTE INDIAN NATURAL SESAME SEEDS 99/1 GRADE, 99.95% PURE @ US$ 1360 PMT FOB MUNDRA BASIS
QUOTE INDIAN HULLED SESAME SEEDS, 99.98% PURE @ US$ 1700 PMT TO US$ 1675 PMT TO US$ 1650 PMT FOB MUNDRA BASIS
FREIGHT RATES TO SOME OF THE KEY PORTS
EUROPEAN MAIN PORT US$ 850 PER 20FT FCL
NEW YORK US$ 2100 PER 20FT FCL
SANTOS US$ 1500 PER 20FT FCL
MONTREAL US$ 2500 PER 20FT FCL
TORONTO US$ 3000 PER 20FT FCL
SYDNEY US$ 900 PER 20FT FCL
PLEASE ADD US ON SKYPE grover.sesame
Best Regards Manoj Grover @ www.groversons.com Email Address bhavan@bom3.vsnl.net.in Mobile +919820128050
